One of the most important factors to consider when betting is finding value. This is essential for anyone looking to make a profit over the long term. Any bet that lacks value is a bad bet, regardless of the odds it offers. When backing a favourite, identifying value becomes even more crucial because favourites tend to have shorter odds and smaller returns. If you’re betting on a favourite without value, especially at short odds for a minimal return, you’re unlikely to make any profit from gambling. Across all sports, there are poor-value favourites, and the best gamblers are the ones who know how to spot and avoid them.
There are several reasons why a favourite might offer poor value, which we will explore below. Many of these factors are things you’re probably already aware of, but it’s easy to forget them when focused on predicting the winner. Selections that are heavily backed for reasons other than performance, or those the bookmakers aim to lose, often offer poor value. Sentiment plays a big role in these cases, whether it’s a horse with a popular name or a team heavily favoured by fans. These selections, while they may be the crowd favourite, often lack the value needed for a smart bet.
Because these selections are over-backed, they offer no value at all. In such cases, it might be better to skip the bet entirely or look elsewhere for value. If a favourite is priced much shorter than it should be, the bookmakers will often adjust other odds to balance the market. This means another selection may offer better value.
Popular Selections May Offer Poor Value
It’s common to see favourites getting more bets than usual due to reasons unrelated to form, which happens across all sports. These favourites often end up with much shorter odds than they deserve because of the volume of money already placed on them or the expectation that more bets will come in. This results in lower odds that don’t reflect the selection’s true chances of winning. While fans may be excited to cheer on these popular selections, they don’t typically offer good value from a betting perspective if you’re aiming for long-term profit.
Popular Horses in Big Races
In horse racing, many horses get priced lower than their actual chances of winning due to external factors. For example, a horse with a popular name or a sentimental connection will often be backed heavily, especially in major televised races. This can lead to a favourite being significantly overvalued. While this doesn’t usually happen in smaller, midweek races, it’s something to watch out for in high-profile events.
Names that resonate with the public, such as those related to famous people, family members, or pop culture references, can cause horses to be over-backed. Additionally, horses owned by well-known individuals, like The Queen’s horses, are often backed more than they should be, especially at events like Royal Ascot. While many people would love to see The Queen’s horse win, from a betting perspective, it’s important to recognise that the horse likely offers poor value due to sentimental backing.
This is particularly noticeable in major races like the Grand National, where factors such as a grey horse or a female jockey tend to attract sentimental bets. Even though these characteristics might not significantly affect the horse’s chances, they can still distort the market, making the horse a poor-value favourite.
Be Cautious of Backing Previous Winners
Backing previous winners is another common way people end up betting on poor-value favourites. In annual events, for example, **a previous winner is often priced shorter than they should be** simply because they won the event before. However, the form from 12 months ago is often too outdated to be useful, making these selections poor-value favourites. This applies across sports, from horse racing to tennis and golf. While a past win might seem reassuring, relying on outdated form is rarely a wise betting strategy.
Home Nation Teams and Players Often Offer Poor Value
When it comes to **backing home nation teams or players**, many bettors let their emotions cloud their judgement. As a result, these teams or individuals are often heavily backed by patriotic fans, which drives the odds down and reduces their value. **If you’re betting solely from a value perspective, it’s important to separate your emotions from the market** and avoid backing these selections simply because you want them to win.
For instance, **Andy Murray’s odds to win Wimbledon** are often shorter than they should be because the bookmakers know many British fans will back him regardless of form. Similarly, in Spain, Rafael Nadal’s odds might be shortened for the same reason. **Bookmakers adjust the odds** to protect their liabilities, knowing that the home crowd will always support their favourite players.
The same applies to football. If you’re betting on an English club to win a European competition, the odds will likely be lower than if you were placing the same bet in another country. **Patriotic betting can lead to poor-value favourites**, especially in major tournaments like the World Cup or the Euros.
We all want to cheer on our home teams and see them succeed, but from a betting perspective, it’s critical to remain objective. The most successful gamblers are those who have the discipline to spot and avoid poor-value favourites, even when their heart is pulling them in the opposite direction.
