Finding value is the ultimate goal for all punters, yet it often remains elusive for most. Value is crucial to making a profit; consistently backing selections at poor value will only result in losses over time. While picking winners is essential, backing those winners at the right price will ultimately determine how much profit you make and whether your betting strategy is on the right track.
It goes without saying that picking winners is the most important part of making a profit. Without winners, you simply won’t make money. However, if you don’t understand the basics of value, even a string of winners might only lead to a modest return. Understanding value is key to knowing when to bet and when to walk away. This approach significantly improves your chances of making a serious profit, regardless of the sport you bet on. Even a selection that you strongly favor can be a poor choice if the price doesn’t offer value. The two pillars of successful betting are finding winners and understanding value to use it to your advantage.
Many punters confuse value with a big price. Just because a selection is offered at high odds doesn’t mean it represents good value. Value refers to how you perceive the chances of a selection winning, compared to the odds offered. When the odds give you a better return than the actual chances of winning, you’ve found value. This concept is often misunderstood, with many people refusing to back odds-on selections, assuming they don’t offer value. This is a common mistake. I never judge a selection solely based on the price; instead, I assess the chances of winning relative to the odds provided by the bookmaker.
Understanding Value with Examples
Consider an English football match in the FA Cup. Let’s say Manchester United are playing at home against a non-league team, and everyone expects them to win comfortably. Given the gulf in quality, I would estimate Manchester United’s chances of winning at 1/100. However, if a bookmaker offers odds of 1/5, this would represent incredible value. Many punters might dismiss this bet because it’s odds-on, but in reality, the odds offered far exceed the true probability of Manchester United winning, making it a great value bet.
Now, let’s flip the scenario and look at the non-league team. Suppose they are priced at 33/1 to win the match, even though they should be 100/1 or longer. Some punters might be tempted by the big odds and think they’re getting value. But in reality, the odds on offer are poor compared to the team’s actual chances of winning. Despite the seemingly attractive return, backing the non-league team at 33/1 would represent terrible value.
In both examples, we see how a small price can offer great value, and a large price can offer bad value. The key to long-term success is consistently backing selections at good value, even if the returns aren’t huge each time. Punters who focus on value, not just price, will always come out on top in the long run.
How to Find Value in Your Bets
When looking for value in sports betting, you need to identify teams or players that the bookmakers have underestimated. This often happens for various reasons, and there are a few methods I use to spot these opportunities.
One approach is to look for teams that have recently added new players capable of making a big impact. This could be at the start of the season or after a transfer window. The bookmakers may take time to adjust to these changes, giving you a window of opportunity to find value before the odds catch up with the team’s new performance level. Although this method involves some risk, if the new players improve the team, you could find value for several games before the bookmakers adjust.
Another method is to look for teams that have been struggling due to injuries but are starting to get key players back. When a team’s fortunes improve as their injured players return, they may still be priced based on recent poor form, creating a value opportunity. As the team returns to full strength, you can take advantage of the odds before the market corrects itself.
Finally, I like to focus on teams that perform significantly better at home or away. Bookmakers often price teams based on overall form, but if you know that a team has a much better record in certain conditions (such as at home), you may find value when they are priced based on their overall performance rather than their strengths in specific situations. For example, an average team with a strong away record might offer great value when playing away, even if their overall form doesn’t look impressive.
Conclusion: Don’t Let Price Dictate Value
Value is about getting better odds than you should based on a team’s actual chances of winning. A big price doesn’t always mean good value, and a small price doesn’t necessarily mean bad value. The key to successful betting is finding value, no matter the price, and combining that with picking winners. By following this approach, you’ll put yourself in the best position to make a consistent profit from your betting.
