Over/Under Goals Betting Strategy

The over/under goals market has had a huge rise in popularity across many sports, especially in football. This market is now one of the most commonly used markets out there and each week many people place bets on this market, instead of simply backing a team to win a game in the traditional way. The market offers a great alternative way to make some money from betting, and the fact you can do it all without backing a team to win makes it hugely appealing to a lot of people.

While football is the most common use of this market, many other sports all have their own slightly different version of the market to make it specific for those sports. Things like total tries in rugby, total touchdowns in American football and total goals in Ice Hockey are all examples of this line being used to very good effect elsewhere other than in football. With more and more people joining in betting on this market, and it is used in many sports, I can only see it growing further and becoming one of the most popular betting markets out there.

The Line

One benefit that punters have seen due to the rise in popularity of this bet has been that bookmakers have created many different versions of the line, giving punters even more choice. When we first started betting on the over/under line on football games, the line used by all bookmakers was 2.5, apart from on the odd very one-sided game. Both teams on this line were just short of even money and that was the only option for punters, which was good, but now we have seen so many more lines created, the market has really come to life. Alternative lines now start at 05 goals and go all the way up to 5.5 goals, sometimes even further if the game is projected to be a very one-sided affair.

The alternative lines that have been created for us provide us with a chance to land a bet with much bigger odds attached. This can be in a game where you think the bookmakers have got things wrong, and where you think many more goals will be scored than what they think.

To show how odds fluctuate, depending on the line you choose to take a look below.

In most cases when betting on football the main line is 2.5, both outcomes on this line will be slightly odds on and usually the same price.

When you bet on the over line, but use the alternative market of either over 0.5 or over 1.5 you will always be betting at long odds-on. This is the same when you bet on the under market at the line of either under 3.5, under 4.5 or under 5.5, this will always be long odds on too. These bets don’t really interest me too much, but if I fancy something strongly I will use a different line in a way to enhance the odds on the bet I am having.

If I fancy a game to be a very low scoring game then I will always take a look at the prices on the under 1.5 market, as well as the under 2.5 goals market and see if it is worth chancing the bigger priced line. You can usually back under 1.5 for anywhere between 2/1 and 3/1 depending on the game you are backing on and sometimes this offers much better value than the under 2.5 line.

Using the same principle as above, if I fancy a lot of goals in a game then I will look at the prices that are available for over 3.5 goals, and maybe even over 4.5 goals as well as the normal over 2.5 goals

market. If you do fancy a lot of goals then you will usually find that over 3.5 goals are priced up at between 2/1 and 3/1, while over 4.5 goals shoots up to be priced up at around 5/1, or maybe more.

When you choose a different line to enhance the price of the bet, you are making it less likely that the bet will actually win. However, you are also increasing the potential returns from the bet and often that makes the risk worthwhile. I don’t always change the line, I take each game individually when I compare the prices, but I do change the line a few times. Just by looking at the different lines that are available and the prices you will get an idea for if value is out there on the other lines.

If you are looking to place a single bet on the goals market for a game that is on TV and you are placing a bet for interest then the bigger prices on the alternative lines will always really appeal. This gives interest in the game at a good price and will give good returns if the bet comes in.

Follow the Stats

As with many different bets that are out there, if you are prepared to conduct your own research then there is an abundance of stats that you can use to help you place your bets. With the goals market, the stats available are huge and they can point you in the right direction when you are looking at what bet to place. If you are looking at the goals market for the first time then these stats will give you a great head start and prevent you from going in blind on the first occasion. If you are new to the goals market then these stats are likely to highlight things you had never thought of in the past.

One stat I always look at and one I recommend you to take a look at is the number of goals that clubs score when they play away from home. Having a team that plays attacking football away from home is just one sign that there could be goals in a game and something I always take note of when looking through the fixtures. A lot of teams play defensively when away from home, so these teams are less likely to contribute to the total goals in the game. These are teams you need to avoid, look out for the attacking minded away teams.

Another stat I like to look at is the percentage of goals that are scored by the main striker in each team. This is something to look for and to use when a player is injured, suspended or maybe even just having a rest that game. If the star striker has scored 20 goals for his club and they have scored 60 goals in total then he has scored 33{5782443060cad75bcdbe069ee06e2d13f622f9e7a77ba35581ed75609da42958} of their goals. If that striker is then injured for the upcoming game, he will leave a big hole in their scoring ability and they will miss him. That would make me look into the under goals market for the total goals scored, and would usually provide value.

Not just strikers have an effect on this. I also like to do the same with creative playmakers that make the goals. Should a team be missing a couple of their creative players then this is just as important as missing a star striker. This may not always come across in the odds and is often one of many reasons why value can be found. It is no good having a top striker if no one can give him the service that is needed.

Betting on the over/under goal market is great and is a betting market that is only going to grow in popularity over the coming years. It is a great place for new punters to start, and also a great place for seasoned punters to find an edge over the bookmakers. You can place a very big bet on the market and have a very strong fancy for something, without actually having to guess who will win the game outright, this is not needed on this market.

With a variety of lines available now thanks to an increase in popularity on the market, there is an opportunity to bet on something at much bigger odds than what we have been able to in the past. This makes it a great market for punters and one where value can be found if the time and effort is put into it. With many stats out there showing everything, you need to know about how many goals are scored by clubs, and who scores them you have everything you need at your fingertips to be a successful punter on the goals scored market.

The last thing to remember is to look out for key players who are missing, these have a huge impact on the ability a team has to score goals in a game. Whether this is a creative player or a leading goal scorer, these players make a huge difference